Análisis del impacto de la tasa de referencia sobre el crecimiento económico colombiano: evidencia 2010 – 2022

Abstract

In emerging economies such as Colombia, monetary policy is a fundamental tool, but its effectiveness in influencing short-term economic growth is uncertain. This study examines the impact of Banco de la República's reference rate on economic growth in Colombia, with an explicit emphasis on the identification and quantification of its main transmission channels. For this purpose, a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was implemented with quarterly data for the period 2010-2022, complemented with impulse-response function analysis. The results show that, although the reference rate has a statistically significant influence on intermediate variables such as consumption, which experiences a maximum contraction of -0.1% after a contractionary shock, its direct aggregate effect on GDP variation does not reach statistical significance over a horizon of up to eight quarters. It is concluded that monetary policy alone has limitations in promoting short-term growth, which requires greater coordination with fiscal policy and a strengthening of financing mechanisms. The main innovation of this paper lies in its empirical approach to the analysis of transmission channels, opening a critical research agenda on the real effectiveness of the Central Bank's decisions by quantifying the disconnection between channels and aggregate growth in Colombia.