Planificación de la capacidad hospitalaria en condiciones de incertidumbre

Abstract

Hospital management must adapt to changes in its environment, where a balance between care and administrative processes predominates, requiring efficient planning. The research aims to propose a procedure for long-term capacity planning under conditions of uncertainty in hospital organizations. A four-stage, quantitative descriptive methodology was designed, including tools such as expert selection, patient flow representation through the different treatment stages, demand forecasting, and capacity calculation. Among the main results, the capacity of the groups related by the diagnosis of the surgical type defined in the service was determined, the operating room was identified as a limiting resource, as well as the percentage of utilization, obtaining 112 % in the operating rooms and 35.58 % of the beds. Among the limitations of the proposed procedure is the level of precision of the capacity calculations (medium-low), typical of long-term planning; however, it enables the heads of hospital government services to propose corrective actions to capacity problems based on a structured methodological procedure that shows how to do the following.