Real Options-Based Methodology for Valuing Photovoltaic Systems in the Colombian Health Sector

Resumen

Energy sustainability and financial efficiency are growing priorities for the healthcare sector. This article explores new methodologies to optimize investments in photovoltaic (PV) systems in public hospitals. An advanced real options valuation methodology is presented to evaluate investments in PV systems in Colombian public hospitals, integrating technological advances, local climate considerations, and financial incentives, thus optimizing strategic decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. A binomial model adapted to the specific Colombian context evaluated three strategic scenarios: immediate execution, strategic postponement, and phased implementation in two representative hospitals in Barranquilla. The approach quantified the economic impacts using parameters such as the initial investment (USD 150,000), projected annual savings (USD 45,000), the risk-free discount rate (6.7%), market volatility (25%), and a five-year evaluation horizon. Factors such as regional tropical weather patterns (which reduce PV efficiency by 20–30%), existing emergency diesel generators as alternative backup solutions, current innovations in battery technologies (such as solid-state and sodium-ion batteries), and the potential integration of hybrid wind-PV systems were incorporated. Real options analysis provided superior strategic flexibility compared to traditional Net Present Value (NPV = USD 29,672 with 6.7% discount rate), generating an additional USD 10,000 through strategic deferral and USD 12,500 through phased implementation over a 5-year horizon. Sensitivity analyses revealed additional financial advantages when considering future improvements in battery technology, specialized pricing for the healthcare sector, and incentives for pilot projects supported by international cooperation. The inclusion of existing diesel generators highlighted significant operational savings and immediate feasibility compared to current battery investments. Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations confirmed model robustness with Expected NPV of USD 29,450 (95% CI: USD 18,200-USD 41,800) and Real Options Value of USD 41,200 (95% CI: USD 28,900-USD 54,600). The application of real options analysis not only improves the valuation and strategic flexibility of solar energy investments but also drives the adoption of hybrid solutions and attracts international financing, thus contributing to the resilience and sustainability of Colombia's hospital system.