Determinantes probabilísticos del riesgo de deserción en las Universidades de Nariño y del Valle (Colombia) a partir de los registros establecidos por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional (2007-2017).

Abstract

The article analyzes the main probabilistic determinants of dropout risk in the student population of the Universities of Nariño and del Valle, Colombia, based on the classification made by the System for the Prevention of Attrition in Higher Education Institutions ( Spadies), with medium and medium high abandonment risk on the rating scale. The analytical methodological basis is based on the estimation of a probit model, with a dichotomous dependent discrete variable “risk group” and several continuous and discrete return. The results determine the profile of the student with the highest risk of dropping out in the two universities represented by male subjects assigned to the Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences, who do not have financial support within the university where they are assigned. It is concluded that attrition, in addition to affecting the student as a social being, has a negative impact on the performance of higher education institutions due to their co-responsibility in the formation of an integral citizen.