Análisis prospectivo estratégico de la educación superior en Colombia

Abstract

Universities must adapt and anticipate emerging challenges to maintain their role in society. This article aims to propose an educational prospective framework that facilitates the analysis of alternative futures in higher education institutions. A normative prospective methodology is used, semi-structured interviews with experts are applied, as the basis for a morphological analysis that guides the definition of future scenarios. The results allow characterizing the strategic panorama of higher education in Colombia and the variables with the greatest influence on institutional accreditation processes are identified; specifically, the case of the University Institution of the National Sports School (Valle del Cauca, Colombia) is analyzed. The scenarios of inertial future, incremental development, structural change and setback are formulated, which lead to the elaboration of strategic recommendations for the best scenario. It is concluded that the proposed educational prospective analysis integrates institutional, internationalization, science, technology and innovation aspects and social projection for the construction of alternative future scenarios useful for strategic decision-making in higher education institutions.