Modelado y simulación de la cadena productiva del cacao en Colombia

Abstract

Introduction: This paper presents the results of a research project. The objective was the creation of a model and simulation of the cocoa production chain in Colombia. It was funded by the Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia.

Objective: The purpose of this paper is to present a simulation model of the cocoa production chain in Colombia.

Methodology: For the approach to this research, authors such as Absalón Machado --who offers a theoretical framework to present the understanding of agri-food systems--, were taken into account. A systemic perspective was also implemented for the research. In fact, it was modelled using system dynamics, which is based on the notion of feedback, delays in time, the idea of accumulation and reason for change, typical of differential and integral calculation. In this way, field work was carried out in terms of direct observation of international cocoa crops and processing plants.

Results: A mathematical model that recreates the behavior of the cocoa production chain was obtained and was adjusted to the behavior of the chain for the time horizon studied. The model can be used to understand the dynamics of the chain as a whole based on the flows of information and material in the system.

Conclusions: It is concluded that the use of system dynamic models, which represent a productive chain, can be used to promote decision-making processes based on simulated experimentation. This allows us to gain an understanding of the dynamics of the productive chain. Furthermore, it is evident that in situ perception of the phenomena to be modeled promotes a better representation of them.