Computer system for the seasonal adjustment of rainfall

Abstract

Introduction: The study of water resources around the world has become a challenging task due to the problem of climate change and the negative impact it has on food and the world economy, water scarcity and changes in the intensity of rainfall are gaining significant importance.

Objective: To develop a computer system that allows the seasonal adjustment of rainfall quickly and safely; achieving the elimination of the seasonal component of a chronological series of rainfall, which contributes to decision making.

Methodology: In the development of the research, methodologies were used: associated with the information systems for the processing of data on the daily rainfall of the municipality of Venezuela, to determine the daily, monthly and annual rainfall, the calculation of the average of precipitation; the corrected precipitation, the realization of series of precipitations by the method of linear regression, the calculation of the index of seasonality, until defining the seasonal adjustment of the series of precipitations. For the interpretation, a web system developed in the Python programming language was used to obtain and correct the main results.

Results: The research proposed a technology capable of performing with speed and precision, the seasonal adjustment of the annual values ​​of rainfall. It was shown that the total and average precipitation associated with the data obtained from the Institute of Meteorology (ISMET) in the municipality is more than 1000 mm, identifying the wet and dry periods. Although there were 12 years with above-average rainfall.

Conclusions: The study carried out allowed to verify the different methods of seasonal adjustment of the rainfall data, a high variability in rainfall was found. The use of technology made it possible to speed up the seasonal adjustment of the chronological series of the precipitation data.